The following is a transcript of Episode 108 of the For Heaven’s Sake Podcast. Note: This is a lightly edited transcript of a conversation, please excuse any errors.

Donniel: Hi, this is Donniel Hartman and Yossi Klein Halevi from the Shalom Hartman Institute, and this is For Heaven’s Sake, Israel at War, Day 102. And our theme for today is entitled The Next Phase, what in Israel we call Stage 3 of the war in Gaza. 

Something, I don’t know if you feel this, Yossi, something very strange is happening. The reality of the war is now changing, but we’re not talking about it. We know it, but the public discourse is not reflecting what we know. And part of the confusion that many of us are feeling, I believe, is the result of that dissonance. As we all know, Israel has shifted down the intensity of the war in Gaza. The reservists have all been sent home, and they were given draft notices a month or two months down the road, but we’re told that that’s for the north, so they’re not in Gaza. 

And just yesterday, the top combat division, which includes the Golani Brigade, which suffered tremendously during the war, and engaged in some of the most difficult battles, was also withdrawn from Gaza and sent on a healing vacation, a restocking vacation for a week. And then they’re coming back, but they’re not going to Gaza. They’re going up north. 

And so, the troops have been cut by at least 50%. And you could see it from small, subtle things, like the Israeli army spokesperson, who would come out every day at 8:15 in the night time and give us his report. He stopped reporting. There’s a different intensity. And we don’t talk about it because the goals, which we declared on October 8th, haven’t been fulfilled. Sinwar and Deif are still alive. Two-thirds of Hamas troops are still intact. They’ve lost most of their missile capacity, but they don’t need all of it, they need five missiles a day to disrupt Israeli life. They have all the food and gas they need because they steal from the humanitarian aid that comes in. Ninety percent of that aid is taken by Hamas. 

So we’re at this sort of a stalemate that we’re not talking about. We’re going to begin an operation that America wanted us to begin, a more precise, special forces operation, similar to what we’re doing in Jenin and in Shechem. But that’s, that’s not going to bring about the victory of an October 8th. 

Something’s shifted. Something in the goals of the war. It’s not just the way the war is being conducted. And neither you or I are military analysts, to judge whether this will be as effective, more effective, less effective. We just know we’re entering into what’s supposed to be an eight-month, year, three-year stage, as we continuously attempt to destroy Hamas, knowing fully well that our ability to do so might not be so clear, and these goals of October 8th might not be achieved. 

Now, what does that mean for us? This is what I want us to talk about. Like, what does it mean to understand or to shift to this type of next phase? Now, if the government declared it openly, and they talked, and they said, this is our goal, and this is our strategies, and this is why we’re doing it, we could assess, we could have, there could be a public conversation, but there isn’t. It’s like there’s this fog. We’ve shifted, almost pretending as if we haven’t, but we have. 

And I think Israelis know it, and I think there’s a lot of confusion. How do we make sense of this? How do we look and understand, and in many ways, learn how to live in Stage 3? Because I’m not sure that Stage 3 is Stage 3 of the war. I don’t know if Stage 3 is now not the new normal. This process, this shifting, Have you noticed it? How does it make you feel?

Yossi: This society emerged from the massacre of October 7th, united around a very clear goal, which is we cannot allow the regime that did that to the Jewish people to remain on our border. And there was virtual wall-to-wall consensus among Jewish Israelis, something like 90 plus percent, according to the polls. 

Donniel: Even you and I agreed.

Yossi: We did. We did. I don’t know if we still do, but we did. And there was this extraordinary consensus, Donniel. And the government basically had a blank check from Israeli society. And that’s what allowed the government to withstand the tremendous pressure, the international criticism. We ended up in the Hague, and yet Israeli society said, keep going. 

For one simple reason. We knew that the credibility of our military deterrence depended on it. And now, what has happened? And you’re right, there’s virtually no public, never mind debate, there’s not even really a public mention of what this means. Are we now shifting the goalpost? Is the goal now not the destruction of the Hamas regime, but that very amorphous term of degrading their military capacity? And if that’s the case, then what does that mean for the credibility of our deterrence? What does it mean in terms of this national consensus that was extraordinary?

We’ve spoken about this before, many times, about what a deeply divided this society is. And yet when it came to what might have been the most controversial decision that this country has made in years, to wage full-scale war in Gaza, with all the consequences, and to have that sense of consensus. And now the consensus is hanging in the air. What does it mean?

Donniel: There’s almost a, there’s a consensus around a policy that’s no longer being implemented. 

Yossi: That’s right. That’s exactly right. Which is crazy. It’s bizarre. Yes, that’s right.

You asked me where, where does it hit me? It totally disorients me. It upends everything that I’ve been saying and writing over these last months, which is we have no choice, this is existential, and it’s not existential immediately, but in terms of our long-term credibility, we must, not just degrade Hamas’s capability, we have to bring them down. 

Is that no longer the goal? So

Donniel: Are you asking me or are you asking yourself? 

Yossi: I’m asking, I don’t even know who I’m asking because nobody’s answering. Nobody’s giving us an answer. 

Donniel: The closest the answer there is, is of course it’s the goal. It’s just going to take three years. So what does it mean? Right. It’s like you’re of course our goal is to destroy Hamas. But we don’t have the capacity to destroy it in the way that we have been waging the war up till now.

Yossi: Why do you think the government has reached this decision?

Donniel: It’s a tough question. I think there’s no doubt that part of it is our discussion with our only real ally, or military ally, and that’s the United States, which very much wanted us to enter into the next phase of the war. 

Yossi: So this is America-driven. 

Donniel: That’s one part. The other part is that I don’t think we could have remained for much longer in this all-out war. Israeli society is built for all-out wars for seven days, three weeks. All out wars which involve the Air Force. All-out war, which involves 400, 500,000 troops. I don’t think our society, if we’re honest about ourselves, is capable economically, politically, even psychologically, to continue. I think the soldiers were strong. I don’t think the families were strong. I think 102 days is a long time. It’s a long time. 

I also, part of me, hopes that it wasn’t just the 102 days and, and a natural fatigue. I just, it’s, at this level, there’s limits to what we can do. I also hope, but I’m not sure, that maybe someone actually did an assessment of what we’re achieving and did an honest assessment and then say, okay, have we, in these hundred days, achieved a dramatic transformation which we can’t achieve in another means? 

And I’m hoping that some of the shift is actually guided by a careful reflection of the mission, the goals, and how best to achieve them. And maybe we don’t need hundreds of thousands of troops, and maybe the next stage is a stage that requires much more time, and much more time has to now, it’s like you know, you know I run, or I used to when I was young. I run now, I’m half marathon, I used to run marathons. You don’t run a marathon the way you run a 10K. You can’t. 

Yossi: What’s a 10K? 10 kilometers?

Donniel: 10 kilometers. You run all out. Marathon, you have to, you go slower. So, if it’s a marathon, this isn’t stage 3. So, I could still say, yes, our goal is to destroy Hamas, but it is a marathon, and let’s adjust. And I’m hoping that the, that serious reflection overcomes the political bravado. So that’s the why, I hope. And I think, and probably it’s all three.

Yossi: So let me suggest a, a different context for understanding phase three. First of all, I agree with you that in all likelihood, we are responding to American pressure. 

Donniel: Don’t agree with me too much because it was only a small part of my argument.

Yossi: Okay, but not only. Not only. I disagree with you about the fatigue, your perception of fatigue in Israeli society. I think we’re tired, but that’s different from fatigue, which really implies exhaustion. We’re not exhausted.

Donniel: I don’t know, I have to tell you, Yossi, the mothers, the fathers.

Yossi: Yes, but the army isn’t. 

Donniel: I didn’t say the army. 

Yossi: Right. That’s the amazing thing. 

Donniel: I wasn’t, the kids in the army are strong.

Yossi: Unbelievable. Unbelievable. 

Donniel: But the families? I see it. You know, I see the hundreds of people. It’s just, it’s, 

Yossi: You and I have been to too many funerals.

Donniel: But it’s not even the funerals, it’s the next, another hundred days at this intensity? With this level of nervousness? And by the way, we speak about funerals. The amount of people who have been injured? In the thousands. And we know the families. And it’s just

Yossi: It’s up to 6,000. It’s like

Donniel: It’s unbelievable. It’s like, and how many people do we know? And this is not, this is major. So it’s not simple that there isn’t a societal fatigue or a readjustment. It’s not certainly a weakness. It’s just life. 

Yossi: Well, the, the context that I want to suggest is going to require even more fortitude of Israeli society. Because while we are entering an ambiguous stage three in Gaza. My sense is we’re entering stage two of what we can call the Israeli-Iranian war. Stage one was Gaza. And that war, we’ve concluded, it seems, that we’re not going to achieve our ultimate goal there. At least not right now. 

But this is a shifting front. This is a multi-front war. And the fact that we are moving large numbers of troops up north, the fact that the conflict in the north is becoming more intense, and we’re hearing more and more voices, of the tens of thousands of Israelis who’ve been evacuated from the front saying, we’re not going back home if Hezbollah remains on the border. 

I don’t think we have a choice, but to extend this, to extend the Iranian-Israeli war to stage two, which is Hezbollah. And that, of course, is going to be a qualitatively and quantitatively different level  of combat. It will make Gaza look like a prelude. And we all know it, and we’re all dreading it, to say nothing of what the war will mean for the home front. 

Donniel: So do you think that’s the reason? So you’re adding another reason for, for entering stage three so that we could start stage two of our, of the larger war. 

Yossi: Yes. Yes. 

Donniel: Now, could be, I have, we’ve spoken about in this, in the past, I am fearful of that war, of Israel taking on Iran by itself.

But one thing that I have seen, and I think both of us could bear witness to this, I think some of the fatigue that I see amongst families is also in direct proportion to the achievements of the war. I think Israelis, Israeli society will be all in for something that they feel is existentially critical. And they’ll be all in. 

Doesn’t mean, by the way, they’ll be right in doing so. Doesn’t mean we’ll always make the right decisions. But this isn’t a weak country. The fatigue is a result of there is a sense that we’re treading water. And you know when you know you’re treading water? When Israel reports, what were the achievements of the war yesterday? Yes, we discovered a cache of three bazookas and eight Kalashnikovs. The mortars, or some Kalashnikovs. And the lead film is that here, see a Hamas terrorists trying to put a bomb on a tank and being discovered and then with remarkable precision and coordination between the ground troops and the air force, this person gets killed with a drone and we’re, we’re reporting on one, ten, I did a calculation if there’s about 30,000 or 20 or so thousand, and we’re killing five a day. It’s like in another 2,609 days, we’ll have gotten to, so like

Yossi: Or why are they still firing rockets at us on day 102?

Donniel: So like there is a sense that, if you want my kid, if you want my husband, I’m all in for that, which is existentially critical.

But I think part of what’s happening, and this is going to be the difficult shift, which I think you’re offering one solution to. I want to offer an alternative one. You’re saying we are shifting to some, to the next great goal that we have to encounter. And that we have to take on. And that danger, you have to make the case that Hezbollah is not deterred, as they in fact seem to have been deterred since, when was the second war in Lebanon over? 

Yossi: 2006. 

Donniel: 2006. That it requires us to enter, that you’re going to do this differently than the first and second Lebanon wars, which is a whole other story. People understand that there is this Iran in the background. And so it could be that we have to, in a mature way, say, okay, we achieved what we could achieve. 

Yossi: I just want to make one more point about Iran, which is that Iran has achieved two strategic victories without firing a shot directly against us. The first is that no one’s talking about the nuclear bomb. They are either right at the threshold, Or, for all we know, maybe they’ve crossed the threshold. They have preoccupied us. They’ve distracted us. 

The second extraordinary strategic victory of Iran is to nearly surround our borders with proxies. So that we’re busy, we go from, from Hamas to Hezbollah, back to Hamas, then we hit in Syria, and we’re fighting a shadow war, instead of fighting Iran directly.

Donniel: So, this leads me to where, how I’m trying to get my head around this. And I don’t want to, I don’t want to be depressed, because I don’t like to do that, but it is, there is no doubt that the categories that we had on October 8th, the language, is far more difficult to achieve in the way that we hoped.

And I would just caution to at least learn the lesson of the first 102 days when it comes to Hezbollah. Not arguing about the necessity. But it does involve 

Yossi: Point well taken. 

Donniel: Some caution should be involved. But I’m looking at this and seeing that stage three is really moving beyond October 7th to a deeper understanding and embracing of the reality of Israel, and what I’ll call the Zionism of Dayenu. You remember the song in the Haggadah? If you had just 

Yossi: Can you sing a bar? 

Donniel: You don’t want me to. But if you, I’m doing an act of profound charity right now. But the notion, God if you had just taken us out of Egypt and didn’t split the sea, dayenu, it would have been enough. If you had just split the sea, but you didn’t feed us for forty years, each time we would have died, and we say dayenu, it’s enough. 

I think there is a deep messianic spirit in Zionism. Not religious Zionism, Zionism per se. Zionism is about solving our problems. Zionism markets to the Jews a failure of diaspora Jewish life, and we are a redemptive movement. If you have a problem, we’re the solution. Jews are in danger, we’re the solution. And we, this is, we, there’s almost nothing we can’t achieve. 

One of the most beautiful things about this country is the chutzpah, not the negative chutzpah, not the rudeness, but the chutzpah, the audaciousness to dare, anything, there’s nothing that we can’t do. Nothing. And then it goes over to the army. Whenever there’s a problem, there’s a Hebrew saying, Tzaha yeida eich lehagiv. Tzahal, the IDF, will know what to do. And don’t worry, everything is covered. 

I think stage three is going to require of us to connect to a nonmessianic Zionism, to a Zionism in which we love this country, are committed to it, where we live, build, celebrate, in the midst of profound, profound uncertainty and an unredeemed universe. After October 7th, we activated the messianic spirit of Zionism and said, there’s an evil, we have a right to destroy it, we will destroy it. 

Now, our politicians still can’t stop talking the messianic talk, but if you have a messianic talk which says, we’re going to destroy them, but slowly, that’s like the Messianic statement which says, I believe in the coming of the Messiah. And then what’s the next statement? And even though he will tarry, I still await him. For 2,000 years, as Jews, we are Messianic, but we believe in messiahs who tarry. And anytime a messiah comes, it’s a false messiah.

I think we’re going to have to internalize this, both in Israel and also our supporters around the world. Entebbe is the ultimate messianic high. There’s a problem, we’re going to solve it. Startup Nation, there’s a problem, we don’t have resources, we’re going to solve it. We’re going to do, you know, just collect all he speeches at the AIPAC conventions about Startup Nation and taking water out of air and that, to love Israel is to love the impossible.

I think part of what we need to do, and I think it’s going to be even more relevant to your stage two. We’re not Scandinavia. We’re going to have evil on our doorsteps. And we’re going to have to continue to fight it. You know, it’s right. We’re now in a three-year war against Hamas. And at the end of those three years, it might be ten years, and at each stage, we’re going to succeed in degrading and coming closer to the goal of destruction. 

But if you want destruction now, that’s just as dangerous as peace now. Destruction now? You don’t get it. We don’t get that. Zionism is about entering into the real world. I would almost say I’m, I’m embracing stage three as the country’s letting go of the messianic fervor of October 8th.

So there’s, and then our challenge, Yossi, as educators, and our challenge as commentators, and our challenges as lovers of Israel, is how do we love it in the midst of this Dayenu, this unredeemed Zionism, this Messiah which is going to take time. It isn’t, you know, there’s bang v’garmanu. How do you say it in English, bang v’garmanu?

Yossi: One blow and we’re done. 

Donniel: We’re done. You know, that’s, that’s destructive. 

Yossi: Donniel. I love the formulation. It’s elegant. 

Donniel: I moved myself deeply, by the way. It’s big. It’s very moving. I can’t tell you how moved I am right now.

Yossi: Very moving. And what I love about engaging with you is that it never stays on just the thing itself. It becomes bigger. My only problem is that I profoundly disagree with the formulation. And here’s why. 

Donniel: Should I tell you deeply why before you even say? Because you’re such a messianist.

Yossi: I am. I am. It’s totally true. It’s like you found me out. 

Donniel: It is like, you, that’s you, you are a messianist. 

Yossi: I am. I am a messianist. I am. I am. 

Donniel: It’s like in every core of your being, you need messianic, you need now. Except when it came to peace now. 

Yossi: Yes. Yeah, that’s right. That’s right. And look, it comes from my Holocaust family background and I know that. And for me, growing up, I felt that if the Nazis had created perfect evil, a world that functioned under its perfectly rational formulation of evil, then why can’t we dream of a world of perfect good? So that’s very deep in me. 

Donniel: I love that. It’s beautiful. 

Yossi: But that’s not why I disagree. It actually, it’s not, it’s not coming from that. 

Donniel: I prefer to make it psychological than intellectual. Because then I can send you to a therapist instead. It’s like an easy, it’s easier, it’s easier for you. 

Yossi: Been there, done that.

My takeaway from October 7th, it’s the exact opposite of yours, which is that what we learned on October 7th was that we cannot live with genocidal regimes on our border. It’s untenable. And the fact that we have 100,000+ internal refugees who won’t go back to their homes only reinforces the urgency of that insight.

And so it’s not for me, it’s, yes, I would love to embrace your Dayenu vision, but October 7th changed the ground rules. And that’s why I feel the overwhelming majority of this country signed up for what you interestingly call a messianic goal. And I would call it an anti-apocalyptic goal. Because October 7th was an apocalyptic experience. 

Donniel: I appreciate that, Yossi. And I don’t disagree with you. But what happens when you can’t achieve that now? Listen, today, 40 missiles were fired from Gaza, from an area that Israel evacuated yesterday.

Yossi: Yeah, that’s, that’s a pretty clear message. 

Donniel: They have by the way, no problem communicating. 

Yossi: No, no, no. They’re great communicators. 

Donniel: And they’re smart. And they did it intentionally. Now, they don’t even have so many missiles left, unless they have factories. Unless they’re producing new ones right now and I, that’s, I’m with you, I, I, on October 8th, I was in the same place. It wasn’t exactly, I, from the beginning, I was always very skeptical. 

Yossi: I know you were. 

Donniel: I was. And then, in the middle, I, you know, when we were moving quickly in, in northern Gaza, I said, oh, maybe something’s happening. And then, I saw us moving quickly in northern Gaza, but somehow staying in the same place. We’re moving, but, so, then the skepticism returned. 

I’m with you. We have to destroy Hamas. But the Messiah is not coming now. We have a tarrying Messiah. So you grew up, psychologically, you grew up with a post-Holocaust experience. I grew up with a teaching of my father, he loved this text in the Babylonian Talmud. It was one of his favorites. And he would lecture about it and teach it all the time. Because he felt that Israel needed to free itself from the messianism of religious Zionism. He didn’t realize the dangers of secular messianism. The messianic religious Zionists were, 

Yossi: Planting the tree?

Donniel: No, it’s not planting the tree. It’s the story in which the angels come to God and say to God, you’re supposed to be a God of justice and fairness. Why are you so biased towards the Jews? And it’s a funny Gemara, because, you know, we’re suffering, but at least in the pages of the Talmud, God loves us. And we’re victorious over Christianity and Rome. 

So, how is it you’re just, you’re just so good to the Jews? Like, you’re supposed to be fair, you know, can’t you be also fair to Rome and Christianity? And God says as follows, I commanded the Jewish people, v’achalta, v’savachta, u’verachta. That eat, and when you are full, then you’re supposed to give thanks to me. And you’re only supposed to give thanks to God when you’re full. 

And God says, this people, when they eat the equivalent of an olive or an egg, they give thanks to me. How can I not show favor unto them? And my father said, his teaching, which is so deep and I reconnected it during the war, that as Jews, we give thanks when we’re still hungry. We don’t wait to being full. 

And I think the secret of Diaspora life has been that we continued. And it would, it’s almost as if Israel has to learn the Torah of the Diaspora. The Torah of living and giving thanks when you’re still hungry. 

And I want to tell you, you spoke about the villages and towns on the border. We can’t guarantee them safety. Let’s get real. You know, we have Iron Dome. They’re smart. They got, said, I’m not firing missiles now. I’m going to buy these anti-tank missiles, these coronets, which fire ten kilometers, devastate buildings, and you have nothing to protect against. 

So why can’t we live in settlements that are dangerous? Why can’t, I could live in Jerusalem in the midst of danger, and I know it’s proportional, that their danger is great, but who said that Israel’s gonna guarantee us, they said, we don’t have it Yossi. 

Yossi: Donniel, until October 7th, the people on the border lived with a very high degree of danger. They lived with intermittent rockets. They never knew if a rocket would crash into their living room. There were periodic mini-wars on the border. In Sderot, you have 15 seconds to rush from when you hear the siren to a shelter.

Donniel: By the way, officially it’s much better than that. 20. I was just there today. 

Yossi: So now we’re up to 20 seconds.

Donniel: We’re at 20 seconds, in Kfar Aza, in Kfar Aza.

Yossi: We’re on a roll, we’re on a roll. 

Donniel: It’s a different quality of life. That’s right. In those five seconds, what could you do?

Yossi: But what we experienced on October 7th was a red line. It was a red line. And not only, not only militarily, psychologically.

Donniel: I know, Yossi. You’re right, I accept that correction. But are there gradations? I know that nobody can move to a town that’s exposed to an October 7th danger. But the notion that I have to be able to guarantee you this safety, or as Betzalel Smotrich said, and I’m not critiquing him for this, I don’t want to build shelters anymore. I’m done building shelters. I’m done building defense mechanisms. I want, you’re not going to have

Yossi: Yes, that is a messianic, 

Donniel: So some, like, some, maybe we’re going to have to have our troops function differently. Maybe we’re going to have to move from a small army to a large army, where we’re going to have to have in every single town and along the border, not a few people looking at a camera with a little joystick and hopefully they’ll pick it up, but that there actually is real troops there on an ongoing basis.

And again, no one’s going to guarantee that a mistake’s not going to happen and that somebody’s not going to fall asleep and that they wouldn’t shift the troops, but this notion that, we’re gonna get rid of it. 

Yossi: Alright, look, the truth is, Donniel, that there isn’t that big

Donniel: And this, Yossi, you have the last word.

Yossi: Okay. Really? Well, the truth is, last week, you took the last word away from me, but then you did give it back when I protested.

Donniel: I always give you the last word, depending on what you say.

Yossi: Sounds good. The truth is, Donniel, that there isn’t a wide gap in what we’re saying. We both know that there’s no quick fix here. We also both know that we can’t go back to the situation of October 6th. There’s no going back to that. And so I can live with a situation, and I suspect most Israelis can, where the government speaks honestly to us and says, listen, this is a long-term war. And this is a wider war. This is the Iranian-Israeli war. And we didn’t frame it that way. The Iranians did. 

Just the other day, Raisi, the president of Iran, declares victory over the Zionist entity. They’re on their way to destruction. They set the terms for this war. And we will need patience. But, and here maybe we do disagree, the clear stated goal of this war must be an Israeli victory. At the end of this war there cannot be genocidal regimes on our borders.

Donniel: Yossi, I’m giving you the last word because I agree. I agree that that’s the last word. As long as you don’t expect it now. As long as, so if you have a messiah who tarries, I’m not frightened from your messianism. It’s when your messianism creates a need for instant gratification. It creates a need for actions that are militarily, not either sustainable or intelligent because you’re controlled by your rhetoric. 

Yossi: Okay. Okay. Donniel, I hear you. But that will, just to bring the conversation full circle to where we began, that will require of Israeli society a very deep breath.

Donniel: And it will require, and this I’m not going to let you get into now. 

Yossi: You’re getting, you know, you’re getting the last word now.

Donniel: I know. But, but I’m saying you. It’s going to require different political leadership. Because for nonmessianism, you need more honest leadership. You need leadership which talk to people differently. And if this is going to be a ten-year war, if we’re lucky, then for a marathon, we need, we need different partners. 

Yossi: If you’re talking about bringing this government down, please take, please take the last word.

Donniel: Yossi, wonderful being with you. 

Yossi: Always. 

Donniel: This war has caused so much emotional, intellectual, political upheaval. The third stage, the next phase, it’s not just a question of time. It’s shifting our awareness and we’re going to have to watch this together because, this is really going to be the journey over the next number of months to see what this means and how do we tell this story and how do we function? And in many ways, how do we give vision hope and purpose in the midst of this path that’s going to take much longer? The goal is clear. The path is not as clear. 

This is For Heaven’s Sake, Israel at War. And yes, this is day 102. 

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