The following is a transcript of Episode 109 of the For Heaven’s Sake Podcast. Note: This is a lightly edited transcript of a conversation, please excuse any errors.

Donniel: Hi, this is Donniel Hartman and Yossi Klein Halevi from the Sholem Hartman Institute. And this is the Institute’s podcast For Heaven’s Sake, our special edition, Israel at War, and today’s day 109 of the war. Today is also the worst day from the perspective of Israel’s military casualties. 21 of our soldiers of our family members were killed this morning. Two people, Ariel Wolfstahl and Ahmad Abul Latif, our family members of very longstanding and senior institute people. 

There’s nobody who escapes, in Israel, this cycle or circle. And maybe because of this, even though we decided beforehand, it will explain some of the interest in what is being called now the grand bargain.

After October 7th, the idea of accommodating Palestinians, or Palestinian national aspirations, was for some, defined as a preconception that we had that was proven to be false. That there’s no one to talk to. That if a society could give birth to and celebrate the type of massacre that we experienced on October 7th, what does peace even mean?

But paradoxically, it’s precisely October 7th and Israel’s engagement in attacking Hamas that has elevated the idea of Palestinian statehood to the center of discourse on an international level. And recently it’s given birth to what is being called the grand bargain, a deal being put forth in which Israel will embrace or accept a ceasefire.

Some force, international force, political force, military force, it’s not clear, will take over Gaza and begin to run it until and which time we can put in place a serious Palestinian leadership. Hostages will be returned. A deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. will be forged, creating a large, powerful Sunni coalition, and finally, steps will begin to create a Palestinian state in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza.

And so, there’s this strange dissonance between a certainty that peace is further away than ever before. And at the same time, this deal is being put forth, and what’s really interesting is that according to a survey from the Times of Israel, 51+% of Israelis 

Yossi: I was very surprised. Yeah.

Donniel: Are open to it. And if two months ago or even a month ago, 62% or 3% of Israelis saw a permanent presence of the Israeli army in Gaza as necessary, not to speak of 30 something percent even want the settlements rebuilt, now that number in the same poll decreases to about 30%. It’s halved. Something’s changing. Israelis still, when you speak to the average Israeli, there is certainly no trust, there’s greater fear. 

Today, I want to understand this. I want to understand the shift, possibly, you know, I don’t take polls that seriously unless they reaffirm my beliefs, but it’s an interesting poll and it’s an important poll. I want to understand it. I want, I want to understand Yossi, how you and I think about it. I want us to try to unpack where Israelis are. I also want to unpack where the international community is. What do they think this deal is about? Where is it coming from? 

Yossi: So I think before we unpack the Israeli public at this moment, let’s try to understand the deal a little bit more clearly, but this of course, is a deal that’s being promoted by the Biden administration. 

Donniel: And Saudi Arabia and Egypt and the Emirates, 

Yossi: And so they, they have signed on and presumably the international community, the EU, and, and other players. And it’s a serious offer. And what I don’t hear yet in that offer is a clear statement about what happens to Hamas. Will Hamas leaders be forced to seek refuge abroad? Will they move to Qatar or Turkey? If that’s the case, I think that many Israelis would certainly be open to at least the first phase of that deal, which is a ceasefire, which effectively means ending the war. Ending the war in exchange for the hostages and the expulsion of Hamas leaders. That in itself is a package in which Israel can credibly claim some measure of victory.

Donniel: I want to stop you for a second because the move you’re doing is really interesting. There is a grand bargain. Not the Yossi bargain. 

Yossi: No, no. We’ll get to the Palestinians. Don’t worry. Don’t worry. 

Donniel: There’s a grand bargain.

Yossi: Don’t worry. We’ll get there. 

Donniel: To come up and to say that you’ll accept. But the whole idea is the grand bargain.

Yossi: No, no, no. I’m first. I’m actually. Yes. I’m actually, for the moment, putting on my pretend commentator hat, as if I’m not speaking personally, and saying what I think a majority of Israelis would be prepared to accept.

And it is phase one, right? I mean, what’s interesting about this grand bargain is that it’s a phased deal. Step one is what happens in Gaza. What’s missing for Israelis, all right, it’s me, but it’s also, but it’s also Israelis, is a clear indication that the Hamas regime will not be able to continue, certainly not in this current form.

And, you know, it’s interesting, Donniel, because what’s happening here is for the first time since the war, and I hate to admit you were right, but you really did say it first, is that there is a growing sense among Israelis that we’re not winning this war. And if we’re not winning, we’re losing. The word you hear over and over again is dishdush, which means basically standing in place, stuck in mud. We’re medashdishim, to use Hebrew English. 

And this is becoming more and more the discourse on the right. And on the center and left, and everyone with different conclusions. Some say we can’t possibly win this war, others are saying there’s a sense of defeatism that’s setting in, and we need to win this war. But, now I will plainly speak in my name. I need some indication that this war was not in vain, that 200+ Israelis fell for an achievable goal. 

Now, what does it mean to destroy the Hamas regime? On that question, I’m with you. I’m ready to be flexible. 

Donniel: But it’s really interesting, and I’m, I’m, I want to point to this psychologically, because for five minutes, you’ve consistently ignored the question that I’m talking about.

Yossi: No, no, we’ll get to it. I promise.

Donniel: No, but I realize that, but I’m saying just, I’m not, I’m not critiquing you. I’m not critiquing you. I’m saying it’s really interesting. I’m putting on the table to ask, what is this grand deal? And you’re going back to a conversation because you really don’t want, it’s like there’s something, maybe that’s an answer. Like you could look at the first day. It is an answer. It is an answer. You’re, you’re indirectly answering, saying, you know, grand deal, not yet. 

Yossi: Stage two, not yet. Listen, stage one is going to be hard enough to swallow. 

Donniel: But I asked you 51%. 

Yossi: Yes. 

Donniel: Now 51 percent in Israel is always a miracle. So, and it might be tomorrow that the number will change. But, there is something. What is this? 

So, you’re saying, what’s interesting about this, and it could be that you’re right. It could be that when people look at the grand deal, they’re doing a Yossi move. And that, by the way, might be perfectly legitimate. I don’t want you to think I’m critiquing you. I’m truly,

Yossi: No, I hear you.

Donniel: It could be that when they look at the grand deal, they say okay, one second. We get hostages out, we somehow neutralize Hamas, and we get to stop having our soldiers being killed? Okay, and then,

Yossi: A Palestinian state down the line? Elohim Gadol, God is great. 

Donniel: You know, maybe, so like, people are supporting this 

Yossi: By compartmentalizing.

Donniel: Or, and, or by, like, you know, by saying, yeah, you know, it’s like, yeah, well, like, winking. But I really want you, and I think that’s possible, but could you take the grand deal more seriously and say, as a package, and you’re right, by the way. Part of the grand deal, at least as we’re reading, I’m sure there are people who know much more about it than us, but we’re only gleaning it from the multiple sources that we have, there’s a lot of vagueness. 

You know, very often we have found that even when Israelis and Palestinians, or Egyptian, whenever any peace deal we sign has vagueness. It has, I write a letter and you write a letter and we don’t agree, but we both agree. 

Yossi: And we don’t, and we don’t even agree on what particular words means.

Donniel: But we have this and we write a letter saying, this is what you meant by this word. And they’re both given to the United States. So we all feel happy, whatever it might be. Be so there is a lot of vagueness, but now are you willing to, or you could also say to me, I’m not willing to, in which case I’ll start talking about my feelings, but I want you, are you willing to look at assuming that there is a totality of a deal, which would be the grand deal?

Yossi: Yes, because the grand bargain right now, the second stage of the steal is that Israel achieves peace with the region. And the price is some form of Palestinian state. 

Donniel: Now, I want to push you even further. The price is some form of compromise on what you believe is victory in Gaza. 

Yossi: How do you see that?

Donniel: Because maybe it’s not going to be exactly the way you want it.

Yossi: Hamas leaders stay in power? 

Donniel: I don’t know. I don’t know if Hamas leaders stay in power, but I think part of the grand bargain Is that you don’t get everything. And that in return for peace, in return for some change in Gaza, is it going to be a safe Gaza? It’s not going to be as safe as when our army’s there. 

Yossi: No, no matter what happens, it’s not going to be safe. But it cannot be the Gaza of October 6th. 

Donniel: That I appreciate. But it doesn’t have to be the Gaza that you hoped for on October 8th. 

Yossi: Oh, the Gaza that I hoped for in October 8th was a total destruction of the Hamas infrastructure. That’s not going to happen. 

Donniel: I don’t know what’s going to be. There’s some vagueness. Does the larger package move you in any way without giving you all that you want at the first stage? 

Yossi: Yes. But. Look, I’m not going to get all I want in the first stage. That’s a given. And I think the Israeli public is starting to internalize that. But we do have, we, I’m speaking in the royal we, I have certain minimal expectations of what a minimal sense of this was worth it.

Donniel: Fair enough. So let’s go back to Saudis in return for Palestinian state,assuming that you’re going to get some 80 percent of what you want in Gaza.

Yossi: Okay, so look, there are two takeaways about a Palestinian state from October 7th, and they’re both compelling. The first takeaway is, are you out of your mind? Are you going to risk turning our most sensitive border, the West Bank, which borders greater Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and risk turning that into the next Gaza border? That’s where I am. 

But there’s another takeaway, which is that October 7th also proved that Palestinians and Israelis cannot share one state. Between the river and the sea, there cannot be one big, unhappy, binational state. And that brings us back, you and I have had this argument before about separation, whether separation is possible, desirable.

I want to inject a new element here, that I think that separation, the notion that Palestinians and Israelis must be separated into two states because they can’t live together, because they can’t live in peace, is going to be the only way to convince a majority of Israelis to even consider the grand bargain.

Israelis, the psychological impact of October 7th, including on people like myself, who have devoted a good deal of time to peacemaking efforts, in a personal way, I don’t believe that peace is possible anytime soon between these two peoples, maybe for the next generation. 

But I am interested in the question of how do we neutralize this pathological entwinement between these two peoples. 

Donniel: And that’s where the Saudis come in?

Yossi: And that’s where the Saudis come in. The Saudis are offering us two things. They’re enticing us with a regional peace, the end of the Sunni-Israeli war, allowing us to focus on the Shiite-Israeli war, which has come in its place. 

Donniel: The Shiite-Sunni war. 

Yossi: Right. The Shiites are fighting two wars simultaneously. And ultimately they’re fighting us because we stand in the way of their hegemony over the Sunni world. We’re the only force that can block them. So that’s one way in which the Saudis can entice us into considering the grand bargain. It is a historic victory that will be one of the greatest achievements in the history of Israel. The end of the Sunni-Israeli war. The official end.

Donniel: And so that, the possibility of that is the game changer, which changes a lot of the fears or for the sake of which you’re willing to take a lot of risks, even against things. 

Yossi: That’s the next step. That’s the next step. The next step is to achieve the Sunni-Israeli rapprochement. I am ready to consider a major risk to Israeli security. 

Donniel: For that. 

Yossi: Yes. For that. The question, though, is how to mitigate that. And here I think the Saudis can also play a very important role. Do you know one of the most astonishing phrases that I still have not gotten used to? Israel’s Arab allies. You and I grew up in a world, in a Jewish world, an Israeli world, in which the phrase Israel’s Arab allies was inconceivable. And that was true even after we made peace with Egypt. Egypt wasn’t an ally. It was a glorified ceasefire. With the Abraham Accords, and perhaps, God willing, with the Saudis, we will have genuine peace.

Donniel: So, okay, that becomes, for you, and maybe for the 51% or so, something that’s sufficiently enticing, which is interesting.

Yossi: Not only that, but a security question. We have allies with whom we can discuss security arrangements. 

Donniel: I find myself in a very confused place when it comes to this grand bargain. Part of me, when I hear Europeans or Biden’s administration, or when I even hear myself speaking about a two-state solution, right now, there’s this incredulousness that takes over. Like, what are you really talking about? Are you serious? Are you really serious? Yes, you need a two-state solution. 

Now, for somebody who lives 5-10,000 miles away, or for someone who doesn’t have to face the consequences, like, I’m wondering whether part of that is just simply, oh, stop this fighting, it’s aggravating me. 

Yossi: Right,

Donniel: It’s just, it’s, it, just. Stop it. You know?

Yossi: It’s the nanny approach to peacemaker. 

Donniel: Yes. It’s just stop it like, oh, children, just stop fighting and everything should be fine, and oh, we’ll be like, what? Exactly. It’s not just me. Everybody knows that there isn’t a functioning Palestinian authority. Everybody knows that Hamas is immensely popular both in Juda and Samaria, not to speak of Gaza. Everybody knows that Hamas wants to kill us. And everybody knows that the conditions haven’t emerged in which Hamas disappears. So what exactly are you telling us when you’re telling us a two-state solution?

And so I have this double move in my mind, like, because I’m an ingrained two-state solution person. Like, for me, that’s the fulfillment of Zionism. It’s not just a fulfillment of the rights of Palestinians, it’s when for Israel we are no longer occupying another people and where another people could live side by side with me and have the same justice and the same equality and the same dignity that I care about so deeply as a Jew.

And in doing so, I’m fulfilling the fundamental commandment of our tradition to treat others the way you want to be treated. I am in. And I’m also in that it’s just so much a part of my Jewishness, a part of my vision of Jewish election and my vision of the story of the Bible and all human beings being created in the image of God. I can’t help myself. 

But even I, after October 7th, have this like, Donniel, get serious. Like, what are you even talking about now? And when I hear it from afar, you called it, what, the Nanny Theory of Peacemaking? It’s, that’s a great title. It’s true, it’s like, I don’t even, like, what are you even talking about? It’s just like, if they’re trying to say, shh, children, you’re bothering us now. You’re just bothering us. And therefore, we’re going to force this solution. And the consequences, of course, are going to be, we have to bear. 

So part of me finds that. And then, as I listen to this grand bargain, I’m finding myself intrigued, see, part of me believes, and this is Donniel as an optimist and as a teacher, that change is never gradual, change is gradual until it stops being gradual and then. What is the word? Cascades? I don’t know if that’s the right word. 

Yossi: I’m not sure either. I’m nodding, yeah. 

Donniel: But it’s sort of like a, like a waterfall, like I had the waterfall. Like, then it flows. And that’s why I always loved the idea of the tipping point. That there’s a place where things are gradual and then all of a sudden you find yourself in a different place.

See, I remember that happening to me and also happening to a majority of Palestinians around the Oslo Accords, which I believe, because of leadership, was completely destroyed. 

Yossi: Can we agree, on Palestinian leadership? 

Donniel: Yeah, yeah. Oh, for sure. I wasn’t being equivocal on that. I, absolutely Palestinian leadership.

But I remember how I shifted from seeing the Palestinian Authority as a Nazi regime and almost overnight, oh, and you see, also, all the polls showed Israelis and Palestinians in 60-70% majorities being for the two-state solution. It wasn’t gradual. And then the reverse happened. It also wasn’t gradual. The Second Intifada, poof, Palestinians against Israelis, no one to trust. 

So part of me is intrigued by this because It’s precisely the grandness of this, which you call security, I call the potential for societal change. That when Palestinian society is put in a larger Sunni coalition, right now, with Hamas, they’re being put in the Shiite coalition. Can Palestinian society return to a Sunni coalition, which will basically take Israel’s existence for granted and then will weigh, lead to weigh, lead to weigh, lead to weigh? 

Now, I’m not claiming that we should do this tomorrow. And there was this great article in the Israeli press by a man by the name of Yemini who said, you know, when we talk about a Palestinian state, we’re not talking about it being tomorrow. We’re talking about to sign this deal, Israel has to commit to it. What does it mean to commit to it? What are the boundaries? That, there is some time for this tipping point to take place? There’s something exciting about this. 

And I think it’s something that you said at the beginning. Part of us are realizing that this fantasy of being able to ignore the Palestinians and use our military force to basically subjugate, 

Yossi: You said it, not me. I would put it differently. 

Donniel: Fair enough. But I wasn’t referring to this, I was referring to your statement that the war’s not going the way it’s supposed to go. But that basically, the conception of October 6th is that we can build borders and walls and use our military, and that Palestinians will be controlled. That’s just, that’s just not going to work. 

So I know I’m grasping, not at straws, I’m grasping at dreams. But precisely because the October 6th, and by the way, the October 8th conception are being challenged and our hostages are still there, I think there’s a desire to look for a different way out, I don’t know, while I can’t fully make sense of it, there’s something attractive about this to me.

Yossi: Look, Donniel, I really appreciate your dance between the vision and reality and that even as you speak so passionately and beautifully about an alternative possibility, you still acknowledge the fears, not only the fears of the rest of us, but your own fears. You’re part of that consensus of fear.

Donniel: That’s the Yossi in me. 

Yossi: Yes. Yes. Yes. And I’m going to try to channel the Donniel in me, although honestly, it’s hard since October 7th. Very hard. And I also think that, I mean, this may be premature, but nevertheless, when Israelis today think of a Palestinian state, it’s far closer to the model that Netanyahu speaks about than the model that I imagine the Americans are envisioning. Netanyahu says a totally demilitarized state with a strong Israeli military presence. 

And I think that what the Palestinian national movement lost on October 7th was any chance of having a fully independent state without heavy Israeli military presence. And the way in which we could conceivably navigate that is by bringing in the region, bringing in Arab forces, so that it’s a joint Israeli-Arab-Palestinian security force, to at least give Palestinian pride some fig leaf.

But the truth is that we can speak all we want about a two-state solution. The ground rules have changed, as they do after every conflict. Every round of this conflict, first of all, the map, the potential map of a Palestinian state has shrunk from 1937 to 47 to 2000, etc. And the nature of the Palestinian state, Ehud Barak in the year 2000, essentially offered the Palestinians a fully sovereign state with demilitarization in its early stages. And that deal is certainly after October 7th is off the table. But again, I think that this level of resolution is premature. It is premature. 

Donniel: It’s not only premature. It’s adding a feature. to a naive dream conversation, that it’s precisely its naivete that’s attractive to me. I don’t know what it’s going to look like. No one’s talking here about settlements. No one’s talking here about Palestinian refugees. There’s so much stuff, I know, and that’s beyond our pay grade, but once, you know, we can get into that at a, that’s not what’s here. 

But, you know, today’s a bad day and, you know, there’s terrible soldier casualties. We have hostages that we don’t know how many are alive and how they’re managing. There’s a sense of dishdush, as you said. We are, 

Yossi: We’re dishdushing.

Donniel: We’re dishdushing and not going anywhere. And maybe, maybe a miracle will happen, you know, where we and Netanyahu are all praying for a miracle that somehow the battalion that’s now encircling Khan Yunus will, will find “The Tunnel.” And then, instead of “The Grand Bargain,” “The Tunnel” will change the whole equation.

But in the midst of that, I think there’s importance to dreaming. You know, since October 7th, I think we gave up on our dreams. We’re frightened of them. We have nightmares. We have nightmares. 

Yossi: Either that or we don’t sleep enough to have dreams. 

Donniel: But it’s important, Yossi. I don’t know how it’s going to work out. But unless you have a vision of where you want to go, one thing is certain, you’re not going to get there. I know that sounds very cliché, but it doesn’t mean that it’s not true.

Yossi: I, Donniel, I appreciate that, but at the same time, for a dream, post-October 7th, must be credible. It has to have a measure of groundedness in reality.

Donniel: I appreciate that, and I don’t know if this one does. I don’t know why 51%, or forget, why 51% of my soul is excited by it, or maybe it’s 60%. Maybe I know it has to be credible, but maybe what overcomes some of the need for credibility is as you said, the idea that we’ll be at home in the Middle East, not just at home in Israel and that maybe that will change.

Yossi: That’s so interesting, Donniel, because October 7th upended our sense of that in Israel. And perhaps the only way to regain that sense of at homeness in Israel is to find a way of being at home in the region. 

Donniel: I don’t think there’s a better way to end today’s podcast. This is For Heaven’s Sake — Israel at War — Day 109. Maybe there’s something to start dreaming about again. Thank you, Yossi. 

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