The following is a transcript of Episode 87 of the For Heaven’s Sake Podcast. Note: This is a lightly edited transcript of a conversation, please excuse any errors.

Donniel: Hi, this is Donniel Hartman and Yossi Klein Halevi, and this is For Heaven’s Sake — Israel at War. Today is day 16. And on day 16, the dominant feeling here in Israel is that we’re marching into the unknown, and is “into the unknown,” which we picked as our theme for today. 

There are so many things that we know. After October 7th, we knew grief. We knew anger. We mourned. We knew that we as a society refused to be broken, and Israeli civil society marshalled itself. We knew that we as a country could no longer return to a reality in which somebody at our doorstep could kill 1,400 and capture over 200 Israelis and massacre us. We know that that cannot be allowed to return.

It’s a lot of things that we know. It’s a lot of things that we know how to do. And I think as Israelis, we love knowing, that’s so deep in the Zionist ethos. We know we are powerful. We are the solution to the problem of the Jewish people. But now, as we’re about, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow, maybe the next day, to move into Gaza. 

As so many other issues, Hezbollah, Iran, are emerging. There’s almost a quiet, a humility, a soberness now. We’re marching into the unknown. That unknown is filled with doubts, fears, uncertainties. But right now, if you want to understand day 16, day 16 is the unknown. What are your one or two primary unknowns, Yossi? What do you know about your unknown?

Yossi: This is the first time that Israel is going into war and doesn’t know who it’s going to be fighting by the end of the war. In the Israeli historical consciousness, there’s a name for this period. It’s called tekufat hahemtanah, the waiting period. And we went through a three-week waiting period leading up to the Six-Day War. Now, I was a boy in America, but I remember the existential fear. I remember watching television with my parents. Is Israel going to survive? 

What we knew then is that we’re facing Egypt, Jordan, Syria. Now we’re facing Hamas. We will defeat Hamas. But is it only Hamas? There’s Hezbollah. There’s Iran. There are the Houthis. There’s Syria. There’s a whole Iranian arc waiting to be activated. So we know how this war is going to start and with whom we’ll be fighting. We have no idea how it’s going to end.

Donniel: You know, Yossi, that wasn’t my unknown. I think you’re hitting on something that’s very deep in Israeli society. I’ll come to what I know about my unknown in a moment. But you know, as I hear you, maybe that’s the reason why Israel has been so receptive, not just appreciative, but receptive to American help.

It’s almost as if Israeli society is recognizing that we’re facing an unknown and we can’t do it on our own. Now the whole Israeli ethos of we are powerful, you know we could take care of ourselves, we are going to create the country where Jews handle our own issues.

But now in this unknown, this global story, the humility or maybe the fear of it being too much for us is why Israelis are so comfortable. They speak so positively about President Biden. They speak so unequivocally. We allow them to go. No one even commented on the fact that Blinken and Biden are sitting in the war cabinet. They’re sitting inside. We speak about the aircraft carriers. 

So this is a time when, you know, when you’re in the unknown, you need help. And maybe it’s an interesting moment to see how Israelis are responding, not only to the fact, to the help that we’re receiving, but also to the awareness that we need that help.

This is a different story about Zionism.

Yossi: This is a different story, but you know, Donniel, taking it back again to the first waiting period of May ’67, Israel’s foreign minister, Abba Eban, went to Washington, met with President Johnson, who was a tremendous friend of Israel. And he reminded Johnson that after Ben-Gurion withdrew from the Sinai desert in 1957, after the 1956 war, the US promised him that if Israel ever found itself under siege again, America would intervene. And Johnson tells Abba Eban, I wish I could, but I’m fighting in Vietnam. I can’t fight a two-front war. And Israel felt totally alone. 

Today, not only do we not have to go to Washington, Washington comes to us. And so this is an extraordinary transformation in our relationship with America. In some ways, I think, this is the peak moment in the relationship. And you’re right, it has all kinds of implications about how we conceive of ourselves, of our independence. I don’t necessarily see that as a long-term unequivocal good. I’m worried about the possibility of having a less friendly president in the White House and of Israeli dependence in that relationship. And that’s part of the unknown that we’re going into. There’s a military unknown, there’s a political unknown.

Donniel: You’re very correct. I’m not saying it’s positive always, but Israeli society has changed. It’ll be very interesting. Israelis are gonna wake up to the fact, or are waking up to the fact that we need help. And as a result, just like every country in the world, you don’t act unilaterally all the time.

We like to think of ourselves as a superpower, we’re unbelievable, but we’re not the same. 

Yossi: I don’t think we think that way right now. That’s part of the consequences.

Donniel: You see, that’s, this unknown has shifted. I think just naming this and being aware of this shift is very, very important and powerful. And for me, it’s a source of great comfort now.

I also love it. I have no respect for bravado. I never do. I love the power of Israel. I love our ability to help ourselves. But the minute you think you’re invincible, that’s the minute you begin to make, you reach too far. And so this, the role of America at this moment of unknown is absolutely fascinating.

Yossi: I think you’re right, we’re going into Gaza without bravado. October 7th eliminated whatever bravado we had. But what October 7th gave us, and I hear it from the soldiers at the front, is this tremendous sense of determination. I don’t remember this fighting spirit in a long time here. Hamas’s great achievement was also its greatest failure, which is it pressed our survival button. And we are going, we’re going into Gaza with that deep, deep sense of, even if it’s not existential imminently, and we know it’s not, but that sense of if we don’t turn this around, our long-term survival in the Middle East is threatened.

Donniel: You are right, Yossi, that this is into the unknown, that going into Gaza is not an unknown. Other operations, we watched them, you know, we called it the cycle, and there was there was a there was this futility, but we constantly got forced. We were like on a puppet and Hamas could pull us into an operation whenever they wanted to. And we looked and we asked, is there another way? 

Today, going into Gaza is not an unknown. That is the need for that on the part of almost all of Israel is unknown. And by the way, it’s interesting, it’s also known on the part of almost every Western democracy in the world who are standing with us at this moment. 

Yossi: At least the leaders, if not necessarily public opinion.

Donniel: But that leads to, for me, the biggest unknown now is not why we’re going to war, but the consequences of, or what’s going to happen the minute we go in. The biggest unknown is not the need to destroy Hamas, but whether in fact we have the ability to do so and at what price. You know, I don’t, as we start this war, it’s not an operation. And as a war, it’s not going to be handled from the skies with bombs and precision missiles. And we’re not going to be able to, like Netanyahu did in the past, declare unilateral victory and go home. 

We needed, there were 23 tunnels, do you remember the story? There’s 23 tunnels and we got them. There were 4,000, but we called it, we decided there were 23 and I actually appreciated it when he did that. He said, I don’t want to take Israel into territory which I’m not sure we could win. But now we declared and are certain as a people that we don’t want to live anymore with a murderous terrorist group with that much power on our doorsteps. But what are the consequences? Our history, the operations, whenever we put ground troops in, it wasn’t outstanding.

When we moved into Lebanon with Hezbollah, while we have the military victory, Israel, Israel as a society has greater tolerance for civilian casualties than it has for military casualties. And when our boys and children and husbands and wives go in, and every day the death count will rise. 

I’m sitting now, Yossi, very, very deep in that unknown. What is going to be? What do they have waiting for us, Yossi? Are we going to be able to handle it? What’s the price? And that’s even before I get into what is the price for Gazans. I’m talking, my primary unknown now is this is not a conventional war, and conventional armies have great difficulty with non-conventional warfare. I’m filled with an angst, Yossi, about what will be and what the price will be.

Yossi: I agree with you that our track record for this kind of combat is hardly stellar. But I think that there’s one thing that’s different now than in the past, which is the Israeli public’s ability to handle, God forbid, large numbers of military casualties.

What you said applied to all our wars before, not this one. Because this war is beginning with a massacre of 1,000 civilians. And what I sense here is not only a willingness to stomach whatever it takes to defeat Hamas on the part of military casualties, but even more unprecedentedly, a willingness, and this is unspoken, you don’t hear people actually saying this out loud, but I think most of us are thinking this, even if Hamas starts, God forbid, killing hostages, we continue the operation.

And so in the past, look, we traded 1,000 Hamas prisoners for one Gilad Shalit. But I think we’ve discovered now that sometimes the price that you pay for a noble act and for being soft-hearted, and for all of that which we celebrated around the Gilad Shalit exchange, look at how we love life, look at how we’re so concerned, look at our Jewish solidarity. I think that that’s being put on the shelf now. And what I sense here in the public is we have to win. Whatever it takes, we have to win.

Donniel: You know, that, I agree with you. I can’t make the statement that you make about the prisoners. I can’t make it. I don’t agree with you personally about making it even though I understand what you’re saying and why you’re saying it. And I won’t, I won’t argue it, but I won’t make the statement. 

But there is no uncertainty about a lot of things. And it’s precisely when there are certain things for which we are uncertain that the unknown become more significant. But the one thing that gives me some solace, and to our audience, you know, talking about the unknown is scary. But sometimes just talking about it, naming it, looking at it is a process of dealing with it. 

The one thing that I feel gives me some confidence, besides Netanyahu and Gallant, there is no bravado. Maybe that’s also one of the benefits of October 7. We’re going into the war, and I think you’re right, with a recognition, you know, en breira. This is a milchemet en breira. This is a war of no choice. This is a pure war of self-defense. 

But there isn’t a bravado. And as I watch these two weeks, if you look at these two weeks, they’re really interesting, you’ll see. Here it is. We’re Goliath. We’re Goliath and we’re about to go into Gaza. What are we waiting two weeks for? October 7th, we were, for one day, two days, we were David. But the reality is that we’re Goliath. When David beats Goliath, you’re no longer David anymore. And Israel isn’t David. Israel’s Goliath. 

But look at the two weeks that it’s taken for us to go in. Like, what is the hesitation? What’s happening? And, you know, some people are claiming, oh, why did you just go in and wipe and do? But there’s a sobriety. There’s an awareness in the military of the enormity of the task at hand. And maybe, you know, when you move into the unknown, I like it when our generals know that it’s unknown. They can have all their plans, and they can have all their certainties. But I feel more comfortable with people who take seriously the dangers and the uncertainties that lie in front of ahead of us and maybe I don’t have to be so nervous about those unknowns at that moment.

Yossi: You know, to go back to where we began, Israel is Goliath at the opening phase of this war, Israel versus Hamas. But if this turns into a regional war, we will very quickly not be Goliath anymore. 

But, you know, I wanna say something terrible, actually. And that is that this last year, when you and I and hundreds of thousands of other Israelis were out on the streets every Saturday night demonstrating to save Israeli democracy, in some way, that period was a greater unknown for me. It was more terrifying for me than this period because that was dealing with an internal threat. We know how to deal with existential threats from without. We don’t know how to deal with existential threats from within. 

If you had told me three weeks ago, Donniel, that there would be some catastrophic event and the entire Israeli public would join together as if we hadn’t been on the verge of a civil war a moment before, I’m not sure I would have believed that we would have been capable of it. The fact that we’re sober, as you put it, and united and determined. That gives me a certain amount of inner calm. That whatever is going to happen, however this is going to play out, we’re going to get through this.

Donniel: From your mouth to God’s ears, Yossi. This is For Heaven’s Sake — Israel at War — Day 16.